Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.260505e-05 0.000098 0.000115 0.000134 0.000155 0.000177 0.000203
2025-02-09 6.147305e-05 0.000081 0.000104 0.000132 0.000164 0.000200 0.000244
2025-02-16 5.343906e-05 0.000076 0.000103 0.000137 0.000178 0.000225 0.000282
2025-02-23 4.468417e-05 0.000069 0.000099 0.000138 0.000186 0.000244 0.000316
2025-03-02 3.593223e-05 0.000060 0.000091 0.000133 0.000186 0.000251 0.000333
2025-03-09 2.911898e-05 0.000052 0.000084 0.000129 0.000187 0.000259 0.000353
2025-03-16 2.467913e-05 0.000048 0.000081 0.000128 0.000192 0.000271 0.000376
2025-03-23 2.132932e-05 0.000044 0.000078 0.000129 0.000198 0.000286 0.000403
2025-03-30 1.803215e-05 0.000040 0.000075 0.000127 0.000201 0.000296 0.000424
2025-04-06 1.468830e-05 0.000036 0.000070 0.000124 0.000201 0.000302 0.000439
2025-04-13 1.266520e-05 0.000033 0.000068 0.000124 0.000206 0.000314 0.000463
2025-04-20 9.913653e-06 0.000029 0.000063 0.000119 0.000203 0.000315 0.000473
2025-04-27 8.350214e-06 0.000027 0.000062 0.000121 0.000210 0.000332 0.000504
2025-05-04 6.647880e-06 0.000024 0.000059 0.000120 0.000214 0.000344 0.000530
2025-05-11 5.895917e-06 0.000024 0.000059 0.000124 0.000225 0.000366 0.000569
2025-05-18 4.902641e-06 0.000022 0.000058 0.000125 0.000232 0.000383 0.000601
2025-05-25 3.494650e-06 0.000019 0.000053 0.000120 0.000229 0.000385 0.000613
2025-06-01 2.522968e-06 0.000016 0.000050 0.000117 0.000228 0.000390 0.000630
2025-06-08 1.915982e-06 0.000015 0.000048 0.000116 0.000231 0.000401 0.000654
2025-06-15 1.509632e-06 0.000014 0.000047 0.000116 0.000237 0.000416 0.000684
2025-06-22 1.095487e-06 0.000012 0.000045 0.000115 0.000239 0.000425 0.000706
2025-06-29 7.095895e-07 0.000010 0.000042 0.000112 0.000238 0.000430 0.000722
2025-07-06 5.128904e-07 0.000010 0.000041 0.000112 0.000242 0.000442 0.000749